From: jonathon <grafolog@netcom.com>
Date: Fri, 7 Jun 1996 19:49:06 +0800
To: hallam@Etna.ai.mit.edu
Subject: Re: whitehouse web incident, viva la web revolution
In-Reply-To: <9606061643.AA03971@Etna.ai.mit.edu>
Message-ID: <Pine.3.89.9606070553.A624-0100000@netcom2>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain



	Phill:

On Thu, 6 Jun 1996 hallam@Etna.ai.mit.edu wrote:

> >	circumstances.  <<  It is something like 1 chance in
> >	15 511 210 000 000 000 000 000 000.  >>
> Rubbish, 2^25 is 33,554,432. How do you calculate your figures? 

	You have one chance in three, of showing a profit, in 
	one trade.  For 25 consecutive trades to show a profit
	it is 1 chance in 3^25.  <<  Slightly lower than my original
	25!, which is what the odds are, if the trades have to
	occur in a specific sequence. >> 

> If you hit a favourable market for your strategy you can win big. 

	_If_ is the operative word there.  

> Problem is 
> that after a while others are likley to cotton on to your strategy. 

	Or in Hillary's case, no strategy at all, just
	pure, dumb luck that she caught all those
	successfull trades, and then quit.  

	Can anybody replicate her trades, on any futures market,
	and gain anything close to the success she had?  

        xan

        jonathon
        grafolog@netcom.com


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