1998-11-13 - IP: Clinton Point-Man on ‘Y2K’ is Low-Balling Magnitude of the Impending Crisis

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From: “Vladimir Z. Nuri” <vznuri@netcom.com>
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From: "Vladimir Z. Nuri" <vznuri@netcom.com>
Date: Fri, 13 Nov 1998 09:03:22 +0800
To: cypherpunks@cyberpass.net
Subject: IP: Clinton Point-Man on 'Y2K' is Low-Balling Magnitude of the Impending Crisis
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From: believer@telepath.com
Subject: IP: Clinton Point-Man on 'Y2K' is Low-Balling Magnitude of the Impending Crisis
Date: Thu, 12 Nov 1998 11:12:41 -0600
To: believer@telepath.com

Source:  Center for Security Policy
http://www.security-policy.org/papers/1998/98-C181.html

Publications of the Casey Institute
 of the Center for Security Policy
 No. 98-C 181

 PERSPECTIVE 
 
5 November 1998

Whistling Past the Graveyard: Clinton Point-Man on 'Y2K' is Low-Balling
Magnitude of the Impending Crisis 

(Washington, D.C.): Today's Washington Post features an article about a few
of the problems besetting the U.S. government as it grapples, belatedly,
with the Year 2000 (or Y2K) "bug." In a perfect (if unintended) metaphor
for the trouble on this front now confronting the Clinton Administration --
and, thanks in no small measure to its absence of "leadership" on the
issue, the Nation -- the Post headline reads "Y2K Problem Poses Staffing
Challenges for Agencies." Yet, the caption on an accompanying photograph
quotes John Koskinen, the President's "czar" for the Millennium bug, as
saying: "Y2K staffing 'has not turned out to be a major issue at this
point, but we are continuing to monitor it.'" 

Shorthanded 

Unfortunately, the article proceeds to detail myriad examples that suggest
ways in which personnel problems are seriously interfering with the
government's Y2K remediation program. For example, the Post reports: 

 "In the scramble to fix computers for the Year 2000, federal agencies have
regularly complained that their technology experts were being lured away by
better-paying jobs and that qualified contractors were difficult to find." 

 "Of the 24 large agencies required to file quarterly or monthly Y2K
progress reports, 13 expressed worries about their computer staffing or
staff availability, according to a new General Accounting Office report." 

 "[According to the GAO] four agencies - the departments of Agriculture,
Justice and State and the Patent and Trademark Office - [are] facing
[acute] Year 2000 staff woes: project delays because of high turnover among
contractor staff and losses of skilled information technology employees
through retirements and increased recruitment by private-sector companies." 

A 'Major Issue', Indeed 

Mr. Koskinen's reassurances notwithstanding, the anecdotal evidence of
problems of ensuring compliance of the federal agencies is of great concern
for several reasons: 

 The government has historically had a much more difficult time than the
private sector hiring and retaining qualified workers in a competitive job
market. More often than not, the workers the government does retain have
skill sets deemed unimpressive (read, unemployable) by the private sector. 

 Given the complexity of undertaking a comprehensive assessment of the
extent of the Y2K-associated staffing problems, anecdotal evidence is all
there is to go on in calibrating the magnitude of such problems. 

 It is a well known fact that over 80% of all large high technology
projects are completed behind schedule. That the Clinton/Gore
Administration continues to assert that the job -- arguably, the largest
high technology project ever undertaken with an altogether inflexible
deadline -- will be done on-time defies historical experience, to say
nothing of common sense. 

Panic Prevention? 

The truth of the matter is that, even if the federal government were
experiencing no personnel problems in preparing for the Y2K "bug," the
Clinton Administration would still be dangerously "behind the power curve."
After all, far and away the toughest part of insuring federal agency
compliance with Y2K requirements will be the testing, re-remediation and
retesting phases -- work that has scarcely even begun in most agencies. 

In fact, what seems to be going on here is less crisis management than
panic management. Unfortunately, Czar Koskinen's wishful thinking about the
staffing problem is not an isolated incident. In public speeches, media
interviews and through other vehicles, he has consistently understated the
magnitude of the problem while substantially overstating the government's
preparedness for dealing with it.(1) 

Koskinen has plenty of company in the Clinton Administration, however.
Indeed, even on the one occasion last July, when (after months of refusing
to issue public warnings about the Y2K crisis) President Clinton and Vice
President Gore finally used the "bully pulpit" to raise an alarm about this
impending danger, they failed accurately to describe the severity of the
problem. They also refused to take any responsibility for the significant
contribution their lack of leadership to date has made to the Nation's Y2K
unpreparedness -- and, therefore, to the likely intensity of the coming
crisis.(2)  

The Bottom Line 

An insert next to the aforementioned Washington Post article on Y2K
staffing issues reports the Federal Reserve plans to release some $30-50
billion in additional reserves late in 1999. The reason: to ensure banks
will have sufficient money on hand to satisfy depositors who want to hold
their savings in cash on the 1st of January 2000. As of April of this year,
there was $3.6 trillion on deposit in U.S. banks. Those banks hold only
some $49 billion in cash reserves. Thus, even with the additional funds
available for withdrawal, banks will have at most only $2.70 for every $100
on deposit.  

The Clinton-Gore Administration is sorely mistaken if it believes a
potentially cataclysmic socio-economic crisis will be avoided if it
persists in misleading the American people. The only hope of preventing
such a panic-driven outcome is for the administration to provide steady,
honest leadership -- addressing candidly the unknown and greatly increasing
the priority given by both the private and public sector to accelerating
Y2K remediation and damage limitation efforts.  

 - 30 - 

1. See the Center's Decision Brief entitled At Last, Clinton-Gore
Publicly Address Year 2000 Bug -- But Continue to Lowball
Problem, Duck Responsibility For It (No. 98-C 132, 15 July
1998) and the Casey Institute's Perspective entitled New Theory
For Clinton-Gore Silence on Y2K Emerges As N.P.R., Gingrich
Offer Contrasting Views Of The Danger (No. 98-D 106, 12 June
1998). 

2. See the Center's Decision Brief entitled At Last, Clinton-Gore
Publicly Address Year 2000 Bug -- But Continue to Lowball
Problem, Duck Responsibility For It (No. 98-C 132, 15 July
1998). 

NOTE: The Center's publications are intended to invigorate
and enrich the debate on foreign policy and defense issues. The
views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of all members of
the Center's Board of Advisors.

(c) 1988-1998, Center for Security Policy
-----------------------
NOTE: In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this material is
distributed without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior
interest in receiving this information for non-profit research and
educational purposes only. For more information go to:
http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml
-----------------------


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