From: Duncan Frissell <frissell@panix.com>
Date: Thu, 23 Sep 93 09:28:16 PDT
To: cypherpunks@toad.com
Subject: Your signature line
Message-ID: <199309231624.AA11164@panix.com>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain


A response to my .sig forwarded to the list because this is a "hot" issue 
with cypherpunk implications.  My improved HSA93 .sig:

"The $1,000,000,000,000 a year Health Security Act of 1993 -- the most 
expensive government program in the history of mankind."

The response:

W >1 Trillion 1993-dollars is about 300 billion 1980-dollars - how much
W >was the government spending then?

I don't think prices have increased by more than 300% since 1980.  General 
price inflation during most of the 80s was in the 4% or lower range per 
year. During the '80s, the Fed and State governments spent about 40% of 
the US health care dollars.  Total 1992 spending public & private was 
circa $850 billion.  Which would make government spending about $350 
billion which I think it was. By January 1, 1997 when HSA93 is due to take 
full effect, health spending including inflation and the $70-$100 Billion 
in extra annual spending Slick Willie has plotted will push annual health 
spending up to circa $1,000,000,000,000.00 per annum.

Granted, my .sig is marketing puffery.  Note it does *not* say that the 
government will spend $1x10^12, but since the *program* is designed to 
encompass the whole health "system" it is correct to characterize the cost 
(to someone) of the program as $1x10^12 per year.  They want the credit, 
they deserve the blame.   

W >World War II was much more expensive - maybe fewer direct dollars
W >(even inflation-adjusted), but the cost in human lives was 
W >staggering, and even if you only value those lives in terms of lost
W >earnings and losses to the market from lost consumption, that's a huge
W >cost. (Don't know what it is, but it's likely to be much larger than
W >the $1T/year times the 2-3 more years before Clinton gets thrown out on
W >his ear :-)

WWII was over in 5 years.  HSA93 (like a baseball game) *could* go on 
forever.  Also, we don't know how many people have died because of medical 
regulation (though, of course, medical regulation is larger in scope even 
than HSA93).  Could be more than WWII.

I don't expect the system to last that long, however.

Duncan Frissell

"If they want a name give them a name, if they want an address give them 
an address, if they want an SSN give them an SSN, if they want a Health 
Security Smartcard programmed with your entire medical and psychiatric 
history + xrays + CAT scans + MRIs + your genotype; give them a puddle of 
melted aluminum."


--- WinQwk 2.0b#0