From: juola@bruno.cs.colorado.edu
Date: Mon, 18 Apr 94 10:27:29 PDT
To: cypherpunks@toad.com
Subject: Re: Laundering money through commodity futures
Message-ID: <199404181727.LAA00320@bruno.cs.colorado.edu>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain


  
  joshua geller says:
  > there was a popular song in the (1910's? 1920's?) called 'the man who
  > broke the bank at monte carlo' and I do recall reading (in a book of
  > sports records of all places) that this was based on the exploits of a
  > real guy (the reason the tale appeared in a book of sports records was
  > because of the level of endurance the guy showed; he stayed at the table
  > 18 - 24 hours a day while he was gambling). I don't recall any of the 
  > particulars, or how much he took from the casino (and was it roulette or
  > baccarat?), or even his name but I am pretty sure this was a true story.
  
  perry metzger responds:
  Short of actual references, this remains an urban legend. Even if
  demonstrated, it doesn't necessarily mean anything about the practical
  application of doubling and similar strategies.

Even if someone could come up with references, that *still* doesn't mean
much, since it's a probabilistic argument.  Like buying lottery tickets
-- *someone* has to win, but that doesn't mean that it's reliable enough
to use for any practical purpose.

Think of it this way.  Assume that every year, there are 10,000 people
worldwide who visit a casino with the intention of trying to break the
bank via a Martingale scheme, and they all play even-money bets.  Every
year, just fewer than ten of them should manage to win ten successive
even-money bets, and earn approximately 1000 times their initial bet.
Every hundred years, then, someone should manage to win twenty successive
bets and win a million times her stake, and break the bank, and get her
picture in all the record books, and everyone can cite her.  But that's
literally a one-in-a-million chance.  Hardly what *I*'d call sound financial
planning....

	- kitten