From: tcmay@netcom.com (Timothy C. May)
Date: Tue, 28 Jun 94 00:38:45 PDT
To: edgar@spectrx.sbay.org (Edgar W. Swank)
Subject: Re: Lotto odds
In-Reply-To: <N8amoc2w165w@spectrx.sbay.org>
Message-ID: <199406280738.AAA19633@netcom11.netcom.com>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain


Edgar Swank wrote:

> Tim May said,
> 
>     ...As for lotto, simple calculations tell anyone that the best way
>     to win is not to play.  The return _at best_ is 30 or 40 cents on
>     the dollar, with the rest going to all the various programs the
>     lotto is supposed to support.  The more you play, the more you
>     lose.
> 
> Actually, if memory serves, the CA Lotto claims to return 50% of
> income in prizes with the remainder divided between schools and

Maybe, but the state has a wonderful scam of paying off a "5 million
dollar jackpot" over 20 years; the true value (what the same deal
would cost you to buy as an annuity) is less than $5 M, possibly much
less. If private outfits did this, they'd be jailed.

> "administration."  Better than 30-40, but still worse than odds on any
> casino game or even the "numbers racket" run by organized crime.
              ^^^^^^^
"Or even"? The numbers games almost always have much better odds than
the State pays...that's one reason for their popularity (another is
tax avoidance).

> Calculation of "x" is not "simple", since you also have to figure in
> the 20-year (with no interest) payout of large prizes.

Oh, I see you mentioned this scam. (Calculation should still be
simple, as any spreadsheet can handle discounted present values and
the like.)

> One other tip for lotto players:  Never mark your ticket with any

I've never played, and never plan to. Money down the drain.

On the other hand, I play the stock market, and my losses in one day
probably dwarf the lottery ticket losses of a small town. But I win
more than I lose, because the stock market is not a zero sum game.

Sorry for talking about non-crypto things here, but volume on the
Cypherpunks list has remained abnormally low since the rolling outages
of a couple of weeks ago...I suspect we lost some folks.

--Tim May


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