From: jamesd@echeque.com
Date: Wed, 24 Apr 1996 04:37:30 +0800
To: Sandy Sandfort <jimbell@pacifier.com>
Subject: Re: 5th protect password?
Message-ID: <199604231456.HAA06590@dns2.noc.best.net>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain


At 06:19 AM 4/23/96 -0700, Sandy Sandfort wrote:
> didn't Unicorn offer Mr. Bell a 
> wager on this issue?  Isn't the ball in Mr. Bell's court to put
> his money where his mouth is?

Yeah:  fifty thousand dollars.  
Not that it makes the slightest difference.

On the extropians list a number of very large bets were made and 
accepted, but nobody ever paid up. (Or very few -- I know of no
cases.)

When somebody proposes a bet that is substantially larger than
the likely cost to his reputation if he weasels out, one can
expect that, if he erred, he will not pay.

Now if Unicorn had proposed a bet for one hundred dollars, then
I would sit up and take notice.  A hundred dollars is real money.  
Fifty thousand dollars is hot air, like one kid says, "I bet you 
I am right", and the other kid says "I bet you a zillion 
dollars you are wrong".

If somebody proposes a bet that is larger than the likely 
reputation cost of weaseling, we should ignore the bet 
and subtract from the guys reputation as if he had already 
weaseled, since the events of the extropian list show that 
that is the most likely outcome.

All of us have been wrong from time to time on matters where we
were sure we were right.  Anybody who was serious about paying
would not make such ridiculous bets.
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