From: "Clay Olbon II" <Clay.Olbon@dynetics.com>
Date: Sat, 20 Jul 1996 04:54:14 +0800
To: "cypherpunks" <cypherpunks@toad.com>
Subject: The risks of information warfare
Message-ID: <AE152A80-FD945B@193.239.225.200>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain


I would like to put forth the assertion that "society", of late, has become
exceptionally poor at judging relative risk.  I think this is due in large
part to the sensationalism of the media (although this is not an entirely
new phenomena - "remember the Maine").  I will cite a few examples:

	1.  Radon causes 25% of all lung cancer.  Of course every study but one
shows no link between radon and lung cancer.  Still, Americans spend
billions testing and reducing the "threat".

	2.  Second hand smoke kills.  Probably, but the only statistical link was
found by picking and choosing which studies to use.  And the freedoms of
millions of Americans are dramatically restricted based on this premise.

	3.  Terrorism is a big threat to the "national security".  Of course more
people are killed in the bathtub than by terrorists, but that is beside the
point.

My reason for bringing these up is that I think much of the "information
warfare" 5th horseman is overblown hype - in the same category as 1-3
above.  Of course, many security professionals will disagree, because it is
in their best interests to do so - their level of funding depends on it.  

Sure, there have been break-ins and some loss of $$ (of course that is what
insurance companies are for).  I have seen nothing, to date, that would
justify massive increases in government power over the private sector; this
of course, has never stopped them before.  The desire to "do something"
appears to infect every politician, fortunately our system has checks and
balances to limit the ability for them to "do something" - because more
often than not it is the wrong "something"!  Unfortunately, these checks
and balances have been seriously eroded over the past 60 or so years.  It
is now much more necessary to actively oppose such idiocy as the FDA
regulating tobacco or the govt imposing "policy" over the entire
information infrastructure.  

It is hard to "buck the tide", but those of us who are skeptical of
government "solutions" to "problems" that may or may not exist must
actively oppose them.

	Clay  

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Clay Olbon II       *      Clay.Olbon@dynetics.com
Systems Engineer    *    PGP262 public key on web page
Dynetics, Inc.      * http://www.msen.com/~olbon/olbon.html
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