From: "Perry E. Metzger" <perry@piermont.com>
Date: Tue, 10 Sep 1996 05:02:15 +0800
To: Martin Minow <minow@apple.com>
Subject: Re: Imminent Death of the Internet, GIF at 11
In-Reply-To: <v03007802ae575f5ed09b@[17.219.103.73]>
Message-ID: <199609091614.MAA24724@jekyll.piermont.com>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain



Martin Minow writes:
> For several months (years?) Bob Metcalf has been predicting that
> the Internet will self-destruct from overload. His argument
> appears to follow one of Gordon Bell's maxims: "anyone can predict
> the future: all you need is semi-log paper and a ruler." As I
> understand it, Metcalf's argument is that network load (messages,
> packets) is growing exponentially, while network bandwidth (fiber
> capacity, switch performance) is growing linearly. At some point,
> these two curves cross -- and demand will exceed capacity.

Except for the following.

1) TCP backs off.
2) Capacity is growing exponentially.

Perry