From: ichudov@algebra.com (Igor Chudov @ home)
Date: Sat, 2 Nov 1996 12:42:13 -0800 (PST)
To: nobody@cypherpunks.ca (John Anonymous MacDonald)
Subject: Re: anonymous oddsman
In-Reply-To: <199611021758.JAA04138@abraham.cs.berkeley.edu>
Message-ID: <199611022039.OAA04636@manifold.algebra.com>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text


John Anonymous MacDonald wrote:
> 
> Ladbroke's (celebrating Halloween, probably) again offers
> 50:1 odds on Perot! Clinton and Browne are still not being
> offered. Recalling last Saturday's Dole odds; they were
> 7:1 at Ladbroke's, and 8:1 at William Hill. The betters at
> Ladbroke's (who get a somewhat worse deal, it seems) are
> bullish on Dole, while those at William Hill are now a bit
> more bearish on the old man, so the numbers diverge in the
> final stretch of the horserace.
> 
>               Prices @ 09:21 GMT Sat 2nd Nov 96
>         +---------+----------------+----------------+
>         |         |  Ladbroke's    | William Hill   |
>         +---------+----------------+----------------+
>         | Clinton | Not currently offered by either |
>         | Dole    |     6:1        |     10:1       |

Whew! They are wide open for arbitrage! Suppose that at Ladbroke I sell
an obligation to pay $6 if Dole wins (they are apparently valuing it for
this much), collecting $1. At the same time, to hedge my exposure, I go
to "William Hill", and purchase their obligation to pay _me_ $10 if Bob
Dole wins, paying the $1 bill that I just got at Ladbroke's.

If bob dole loses, I lose nothing. If he wins, I make $4 out of air.

I wonder why the beting markets are so imperfect.


have fun

igor



>         | Perot   | 50:1 (again)   |    500:1 (!)   |
>         | Browne  | Not currently offered by either |
>         +---------+----------------+----------------+
>         | Phone   | +44-800-524524 | +44-800-444040 |
>         | Numbers:|                |                |
>         +---------+----------------+----------------+
> 
> As for the animal suspected of *really* running the U.S.A,
> "Socks" appears to be successfully defending his territory
> against "Leader." Full of confidence, she is now running
> virtual tours of the White House, kids!
> 
> http://www.whitehouse.gov/WH/kids/html/home.html
> 
> Meanwhile "Leader" whimpers at
> 
> http://www.firstdog.com/
> 
> (Wow, his own domain!) Perot (obviously) needs no pet, and
> the oddsman is unaware of any public photos of Libertarian
> candidate Browne's cats, much less their names. A serious
> campaign.
> 
> Our roving reporter in the UK also thinks that there *must*
> be significance in the fact that our Presidential election
> is being held on the anniversary of the day that Guy Fawkes
> attempted to blow up his Houses of Parliament, together
> with all the politicians within. He, as usual, will celebrate
> the event with bonfires and fireworks.
> 
> Mailmasher.com appears to be down, apologies to any of you
> who wished to correspond personally with the oddsman there.
> Hopefully, oddsman@mailmasher.com will come back soon.
> anonymous oddsman
> 
> "Demeaning the integrity of the U.S. Presidential election process
> for you on a regular basis, at no charge."
> 
> 
> 



	- Igor.