From: Tim May <tcmay@got.net>
Date: Tue, 9 Sep 1997 01:40:17 +0800
To: cypherpunks@Algebra.COM
Subject: Nuclear Hedge Funds
In-Reply-To: <199709081619.JAA20847@proxy3.ba.best.com>
Message-ID: <v03102802b039df8e51d7@[207.167.93.63]>
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At 9:19 AM -0700 9/8/97, James A. Donald wrote:

>At 10:13 PM 9/4/97 -0700, Tim May wrote:
>> Stay away from soft targets (Tel Aviv, Haifa, the ZOG section of Jerusalem,
>> New York, Washington, and so on--Harbors (e.g., Haifa, NYC) are pretty
>> likely targets, due to the extreme ease of delivery). But also be prepared
>> for major disruptions and panic even if you are nowhere near the blast.
>
>Relax:   Anyone who can afford nukes, probably won't use them without
>very good reason.
>
>By the way, I have noticed that the Israelis have lately taken a considerably
>more conciliatory attitude towards non state entitities.

The targets may not even be political.

Imagine the profits to be made by shorting a bunch of high tech, networking
stocks and then detonating a package near the major NAPs clustered in
Silicon Valley? Not to mention the direct effects and the panic effects on
Intel, Sun, Netscape, Apple, Cisco, 3COM, and a hundred other such
companies.

Conventional explosives could knock out MAE-West or any other single NAP,
but even a low-yield nuke would trigger the panic, fallout, and temporary
abandonment of facilities. Cisco and Intel would be massively disrupted for
at least several months, and might not recover for years....

(Conventional explosives could also cause a billion or more dollars worth
of damage to a major wafer fabrication plant, of course, but the
manufacturing capacity could be shifted to other plants in a matter of
months. Some major short sale opportunities, but not nearly what a nuke
could do to a _region_, in terms of direct blast effects, fallout in
surrounding city blocks (tens of square city blocks, at the least, esp.
give OSHA standards, etc.), and the sheer panic effect.)

Similar effects would be felt if a suitcase nuke were detonated in Chicago
near the futures/options markets, in Nuke York City in almost any of the
locations, in the City of London, and so on. The best target for such a
suitcase nuke would require careful planning.

(Very speculatively, a terrorist group might actually gain more by hitting
a financial or high tech center, and multiplying their assets by factors of
hundreds or thousands, thus allowing them to gain more conventional
leverage. Of course, their sudden new wealth would make them the suspects
in such a bombing.)

By carefully using cutouts for the short positions (lawyers in distributed
countries, for example), and by buying puts (huge leverage, of course), the
risks to an "investment group" could be minimal.

LEGAL DISCLAIMER: This is not investement advice. I am not a Certified
Nuclear Hedging Advisor, and my knowledge of the effects of nuclear weapons
on financial markets is based on speculation. In other words, your
megatonnage may vary.

There's something wrong when I'm a felon under an increasing number of laws.
Only one response to the key grabbers is warranted: "Death to Tyrants!"
---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:----
Timothy C. May              | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money,
tcmay@got.net  408-728-0152 | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero
W.A.S.T.E.: Corralitos, CA  | knowledge, reputations, information markets,
Higher Power: 2^1398269     | black markets, collapse of governments.
"National borders aren't even speed bumps on the information superhighway."