From: Jim Choate <ravage@ssz.com>
Date: Thu, 27 Nov 1997 22:39:53 +0800
To: cypherpunks@ssz.com (Cypherpunks Distributed Remailer)
Subject: Re: Further costs of war (fwd)
Message-ID: <199711271446.IAA26608@einstein.ssz.com>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text



Forwarded message:

> Subject: Re: Further costs of war (fwd)
> From: dlv@bwalk.dm.com (Dr.Dimitri Vulis KOTM)
> Date: Wed, 26 Nov 97 22:40:54 EST

> This has little crypto relevance (unless someone drags in the fact that
> some of the important ww2 naval battles were won by the us because they
> broke jap codes).

WARNING: blipvert mentality

> In 1904/5 (what's a couple of years between punks) the japs beat the shit out
> of the tzar, not Stalin, because of the tzarist army's supreme incompetence,
> and also because of severe internal unrest in Russia (general strikes and
> uprisings everywhere).

It was still Russia. The claims of incompetence and internal unrest apply to
both regimes. Is there some point you wish to review regarding this point?

> Prior to that, the japs effectively beat Russia in 1875(?).

Actualy, the Russians never beat the Japanese prior to Khalkal Gol.

[deleted material, relevance unclear]

> At lake Khasan (near the short Soviet-Korean border) the Japs demanded
> (July/August, 1938) that the Soviets turn over some strategic hills, which
> would have made a future attack on Vladivostok easier.  Then the japs
> just sent some troops to occupy the hills; it took the Soviets almost 2
> weeks to re-take them, which can be explained both by their incompetence
> and by Blyukher working for the japs. Jap casualties were 650 dead and
> 2500 woulnded.

This was the battle of Chankufeng Hill (1938). My sources indicate the
casualties were approx. 10,000 on each side.

> Jap casualties were much higher at Khalkhin Gol. Strategically, the Japs were
> trying to occupy a chunk of Mongolia that would allow them to cut off the
> only railroad linking the Soviet far east with the rest of Siberia (which
> passes right next to the Chinese border). The japs were bombarding the
> disputed area of Mongolia in January-April 1939; invaded in May, and were
> kicked out by the Soviet troops, led by Zhukov (note the correct spelling)
> in late August. Their casualties were 55K, 25K of which were killed.

But(!), the relevant point of this conflict is one simple point. The
Russians didn't re-inforce *or* launch their counter-attack until *after*
Sorge had assured the Russians that the Japanese would *not* re-inforce
themselves (which they didn't). Further, it is important to note that Zhukov
employed a massively superior force, including weapons, the likes of which
had never been employeed by the Russians before. In addition, Zhukov is
notable not for his strategic sense but his tenacity, he didn't care about
casualties and did not withdraw once forces were committed. Even though it
was clear that the Japanese would have withdrawn because of lack of
reinforcements. It was a show battle from the military perspective.

[deleted material, relevance unclear]

> They recognized that they could have occupied Vladivostok in 1938 if
> they had really tried; but eventually Russian reinforcements would
> come and there would be hell to pay. Stalin demonstrated that unlike the
> tzars he was willing to put up a fight over this relatively worthless
> real estate.

Only after he was shure that the Japanese wouldn't contest it.

> Technically speaking, Moscow did fall. :-)

Militarily speaking Moscow didn't fall. :-) There was no battle. The course
taken by the Tzars in dealing with Moscow was a political move that would
actualy provide them with more return than an actual battle. Remember,
Moscow was the fort (ala Kremli), the capital was St. Petersburg. This
strategy was discussed and discarded by Stalin as being politicaly
unworkable.

> By Oct 16, 1941, everyone and
> everything were evacuated from Moscow, down to Lenin's mummy, and the Germans
> could have walked in if they wanted to.

Actualy they did walk in. Napolean spent six weeks at the Kremli before
realizing the folly of his misunderstanding. He was waiting on the Tzarist
forces fro St. Petersburg. By that time 3/4 of Moscow had been burned to the
ground.

> The Germans chose not to march in
> because they feared mines and booby traps they encountered earlier in Kiev
> (probably correct, too). While they waffled, Russian reinforcements arrived
> from Siberia and drove them off.

The Cossacks didn't arrive until shortly *after* the French began moving
their van out of Moscow.

> Mussolini's bloody invasion of Ethiopia was mostly a revenge for the
> previous invasion by Italy which ended in a humiliating defeat.

But it's irrelevant to this discussion.

> I'd venture to say that other Hitler allies (Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria)
> viewed him as a lesser eveil and didn't like him at all.

Irrelevant to this discussion as well.


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