From: Jim Choate <ravage@ssz.com>
Date: Tue, 25 Nov 1997 03:30:02 +0800
To: cypherpunks@ssz.com (Cypherpunks Distributed Remailer)
Subject: Re: Further costs of war (fwd)
Message-ID: <199711241930.NAA13443@einstein.ssz.com>
MIME-Version: 1.0
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Forwarded message:

> Date: Mon, 24 Nov 1997 13:04:13 -0500
> From: Fabrice Planchon <fabrice@math.Princeton.EDU>
> Subject: Re: Further costs of war (fwd)

> Reread what you quoted below, and you will see that I don't want to
> debate over wether or not in a frontal clash between USSR and Japan the
> japanese army wins or not. I will grant you they win the first
> battle. The same way the germans won for a while... And even admittedly
> if you destroy the organised forces from your enemy, it doesn't mean you
> are done. You are only if you manage to get the population on your
> side. Dimitri makes a very good point in his post, saying that the
> germans fucked up in the west, as they could have taken great advantage
> from being seen as liberators. As for "Moscow fall, Stalin  fall",
> remember Napoleon ?

Napolean never took Moscow, he was stopped - just like Hitler - at the
gates. The closest either French or German forces got was to look at the
spires of the Kremlin. Beyond that similarity there are a wide range of
differences between the situation. The fact remains that had Stalin *not*
been able to withdraw troops from the Chinese border he would not have been
able to keep Stalingrad or Moscow. Further, the *only* reason that Stalin
could afford to do that was because Sorge indicated that the Japanese were
interested in other goals at the time. Oh, regarding Napolean, the reason
that he couldn't take Moscow was because troops, called Cossacks, were moved
from the east to the west.

> > Had it not been for the oil, food, and weapons we shipped Britian he would
> > have owned Europe in toto. It is clear from Hitlers earliest writings that
> > he had full intention of taking Russia. Had Stalin not had Sorge's
> 
> Yeah, he was stupid. That's my point ;-)

Hitler may have been a lot of things, stupid was not one of them.

> Ultimatly this cost them the game. Not enough men. Had the situation
> last a little longer, japanese occupation forces in China would have
> faced some serious problems (they were already, actually).

Such as? The situation in China at the time was that a variety of warlords
were spending more time fighting each other than the Japanese. China at that
time was not a cohesive entity. The reason that Japan lost WWII was that at
no point did they have strategic supplies of oil for longer than 5-9 months
*and* the US waged unrestricted submarine warfare in the Pacific destroying
what merchant marine the Japanese had so they could not take advantage of
the oil refineries in such nifty places as Palembang, Sumatra (whose taking
in Feb. 1942 was the first use of Japanese paratroops, all 700 were wiped
out). It was not because they didn't have the men.

> Well, in 34 it wasn't yet the case: when there were serious rumors that
> Hitler might be tempted to invade Austria, Mussolini moved troops close
> to his autrian border. He was a close friend of the austrian prime
> minister of the time (later to be killed...). How Mussolini changed his
> mind is a mix of his internal situation in Italy, and his rejection by
> the rest of Europe...

In 1934 Mussolini invaded Abyssinia all on his own, Hitler took the
opportunity to march into the Rhineland while the rest of the world stood
aghast at the use of modern weapons against stone-age tribesmen. The next
thing Mussolini did was send troops to help Franco, troops which fought
right along side Germans troops. On Nov. 30, 1938 Ciano made a comment in
the Fascist Chamber about 'natural aspiration' and the members stood yelling
"Corsica, Tunis, Nice!". The talk of taking Nice obviously did nothing to 
settle the French's worries. In July, 1938 5 billion lire was asigned to
modernize the Italian forces. The Abyssinian campaign cost 13 billion lire
and tied up 300,000 Italian troops. The help in Spain cost hardware and
involved another 50,000 troops who were still there. When the Spanish Civil
War ended in 1939 he invaded Albania, which was an Italian protectorate. By
this time Italy as allied strongly to Germany in the minds of just about
everyone. Around 12 August, 1939 after Ciano discovered the intended invasion
of Poland and passed this to Mussolini did there become a measure of doubt in
Mussolini's mind that perhaps he had picked the wrong allies.

> I think you are the one playing games, not me. Once again, I don't
> disagree with you on the fact that the US made the right decision
> anyway. But had they waited until Hitler was knocking on their door it
> wouldn't probably have changed the issue by much. (I would be a native
> german-speaker, perhaps...)

If the US had waited until Hitler began dropping bombs on New York and
firing V2's from submarines 20 miles off the coast while at the same time
Japan was doing the same sorts of things, with a nice base at Pearl Harbor,
*and* you claim the US could have stood the test then I can only say you
are confused at best.


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