From: Jim Choate <ravage@ssz.com>
Date: Fri, 28 Nov 1997 03:09:54 +0800
To: cypherpunks@ssz.com (Cypherpunks Distributed Remailer)
Subject: Re: Further costs of war (fwd)
Message-ID: <199711271910.NAA27192@einstein.ssz.com>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text



Forwarded message:

> Subject: Re: Further costs of war (fwd)
> From: dlv@bwalk.dm.com (Dr.Dimitri Vulis KOTM)
> Date: Thu, 27 Nov 97 11:22:32 EST

> My point was that Russia might have negotiated a better peace at Portmouth, NH,
> if it wasn't forced to stop fighting by the general strike.

And just exactly what does that have to do with contributing to the US
becoming involved in WWII?

> Actually, the Russians forced the japs out of port arthur in 1895 and took
> it for themselves. But most times their strategy was to avoid conflict and
> to let the japs take whatever japs wanted, such as Hokkaido.

The point to this is that at the same time the US was taking the Hawaii's, Guam,
and conquered the Philippines (costing 20,000 Filipinos & 4,000 Americans).
The US itself was making grabs into that same pie.

> > This was the battle of Chankufeng Hill (1938). My sources indicate the
> > casualties were approx. 10,000 on each side.
> 
> Sigh. My (Russian) sources refer to the incident as lake Khasan, and to the
> hills by their Russian names: (vysoty) Zaozernaya and Bezymyannaya.  Your
> attempts to refer to Russian hills by their Korean names are a sure sign
> russophobia and racism.

Actualy it stems from my being an American and the names that are chosen for
whatever reason. Pretty weak ad hominim.

[deleted material - weapons count - relevancy unclear]

> As for the innovative use of tanks by Zhukov,

Huh? Who said anything about Zhukov being innovative? His main claim to fame
is his disregard for casualties.

> Ahem. I was talking about Hitler in 1941, not Napoleon in 1812. (Both fucked
> up the psyops and alienated the popuilation which could have viewed them as
> their liberators, but that's a different thread altogether.)
> 
> Militarily speaking, by oct 16 Moscow was evacuated and useless to the
> Soviets.

The issue in both cases wasn't military. In Napoleon's case the capital
wasn't Moscow, it was St. Petersburg. Moscow was an outpost the French over
estimated the worth of. By not fighting for it the peoples sacrifice created
a great political environment and also further depleted the French who
weren't prepared for the weather. In the WWII case, Stalin couldn't afford to
be seen backing down.

> Learn to read. I was talking about Hitler's troops in October 1941. The road
> to Moscow was clear, but the Germans didn't walk in.

The Germans only got to the outskirts. And the records that I have indicate
that it wasn't a cake walk. To quote a report that Bock made to Brauchitsch
just after arriving from viewing Moscow from a front-line bunker: "I have 
last night relieved a divisional commander who reported that the Russians
had repulsed his men with hammers and shovels."

> I'm talking about 1941! Stalin decided to assume that the japs wreen't going
> to attack, so he brought in fresh troops from Siberia.

There was no assumption. Stalin had Sorge to tell him what was up.

> By the way I feel that
> from the game theortic point of view, if he knew nothing about jap intentions
> (i.e., no Richard Sorge), they the right strategy would have been to assume
> that the japs were not going to attack; for if they did, he would have been
> fucked anyway. With the assumptions that the japs wouldn't attack, he was able
> to beat off the germans.

Assuming he had no intelligence, send out scouts. I would probably look at
some form of contested withdrawal (the hardest kind of operation technicaly)
to a set of stop-lines. I would use those stop lines for re-supply &
re-organization. This would allow me to remove troops from the front lines
and compensate with improved logistics over my opponent, whose supply lines
only get longer and longer. I would in addition increase my intelligence
resources (eg traffic monitoring & analysis) on that front. I would furher
increase my air forces ability to bomb in close support to about 100 miles
behind the front lines. The lines would be about 30-60 miles apart depending
on terrain. Never under-estimate your enemy (that 'no intelligence' will
bite you in the ass *every* time) and have a clear goal. I would attempt to
pull some troops from the eastern front because the Japanese supply lines
would be long and external, while mine get shorter and are internal. This
would allow me an edge on the typical 3:1 ratio. I would further recognize
that while I had lots of natural resources in that area but few urban areas
physical control for a short period while resolving the western front is
acceptable. If something like the US entering were to occur I would then put
a light covering screen and pull troops out because the Japanese don't have
the resources to fight on that many fronts.

> Possibly.  I was responding to your (outright silly) claim that Mussolini
> invaded Ethiopia to "impress" Hitler.

No, I claim that *one* of the issues involved was to be able to appear at
the bargaining table as Hitlers equal. Material refering to these motives are
in Ciano's diary. Mussolini was wanting the entire episode to be seen as a
grand adventure. He wanted Italy to be seen as an adventersome country with
the cutting edge in political systems successfuly fulfilling its rightful
place in history. In short, he wanted to be seen as the 'good guy'.


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