From: nobody@REPLAY.COM (Anonymous)
Date: Thu, 20 Nov 1997 13:12:36 +0800
To: cypherpunks@toad.com
Subject: Traffic Analysis Tip #3207
Message-ID: <199711200458.FAA21590@basement.replay.com>
MIME-Version: 1.0
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TRAFFIC ANALYSIS TIP #3207: Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD)

When performing traffic analysis and/or stylometry for the purpose of
discerning the sometimes subtle differences between genuine mental
imbalance and affectation of the same by boilerplate government and/or
corporate shills, one needs to take into account the possible role that
'Seasonal Affective Disorder,' (SAD), may play in emotive attacks on
the target, be it a group or a particular subject.

The onset of SAD can often be recognized by the correlation between
increasingly emotional attacks and specifically monitorable elements
of seasonal changes, such as the decreasing amount of light in the
northern and southern climes as winter advances.
Examples of this can be easily charted using posts originating from
ISP's such as sympatico.ca. The data can then be compared to that
garnered through an analysis of Hettinga's posts, showing that the 
latter are goal-oriented emotive attacks designed to provide identity-
associated confirmation/support of the current round of anonymous posts
aimed at denigrating the cypherpunks mailing list by associating it
directly, in the minds of others, with one or two individuals/targets
on the list.

Note that although SAD can aggravate existing conditions, such as OCD
(Obssesive-Compulsive Disorder), it does not change the basic traits
of those conditions.
The excessive diatribes of Choate, for instance, upon having a few
lines of one of his posts changed/misquoted by Toto/TruthMonger, were
shown by analysis to have been easily deflected by others into a more
generalized attack/defense-of-his-position.
While Hettinga's current attack might easily be confused with an
identity-fixation focus of the same general form of OCD, closer 
analysis would show that his posts continually return to goal-
oriented repetitive misstatements aimed toward linking the individual
to a specifically designed mind-construct being advanced by the
para//el anonymous posts.

Likewise, the effect of Seasonal Affective Disorder on those afflicted
with a wider variety of interconnected dysfuntionalities, such as the
ADHD/Tourette/OCD/Schizoid tendencies of TruthMonger #1, is to merely
increase the volatility of already existing conditions.
Analysis of the known posts of #1, under a variety of personas and
anonymous list offerings, shows the same wide set of dysfunctional 
anomalies working at cross-purposes on a broad spectrum of issues.
One of the keys to differentiating these posts from those produced
by boilerroom spook operations is recognizing the existence of 
multiple underlying signs of a broader range of diagnosic criterion
than is present in a willful affectation of dysfunctional conditions
designed to elicit para//el emotive reactions in other subscribers
to the mailing list.

The effect/influence of SAD has been shown in the past to be much
greater during high levels of El Nino activity.

TAT#3207/coe