From: Tim May <tcmay@got.net>
Date: Wed, 12 Nov 1997 04:19:39 +0800
To: Jim Burnes <cypherpunks@Algebra.COM
Subject: The Collapse is Coming
In-Reply-To: <199711110513.VAA13432@sirius.infonex.com>
Message-ID: <v0310280bb08e5a271d61@[207.167.93.63]>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain



At 12:57 PM -0700 11/11/97, Jim Burnes wrote:

>I'm not sure that there is anything they can do about it anyway.  The
>contract to fix the IRS's Y2K problem won't be awarded until October of
>1998 (!!).  That leaves them 8 months until software oblivion to fix the
>problem.  They have an estimated 60 to 80 million lines of code to fix and
>test. (some of the code they don't have source code for, some of it is in
>assembler)
....
>The end result would be an interesting study in complexity and catastrophe
>theory.
>
>For me, I will be on an extended fishing trip somewhere in the Rockies.

Yep, except I plan to be at home, in my compound, with a several-month
supply of food. (I'm on a well, and I have a generator, so a loss of the
grid in the ensuing chaos would not devastate me. Plus, central California
has a pretty mild climate...)

The dumbest thing to do is to pay big bucks, as many are, to be in some
exotic location to celebrate the rollover of the digits (if not the
century, as we all know). Imagine being stranded in Cairo or Machu Piccu
during this meltdown.

>If the system crashes then the joke will be on the megacorps that
>volunteered to fix the thing.  All those US FRN electronic ledger entries
>won't be worth the diskspace that holds them.
>
>Or so it would seem.  As the programmers who work on the system realize
>that it will be impossible to fix the system, they will be buying hard
>assets and leaving the Y2K project like rats from a sinking ship.

The consensus in the survivalist community is that the Y2K problem will
devastate the IRS system, exactly as Jim describes here (and as we
discussed on the list a couple of months ago, mid-September, under the
thread title, "Preparing the Remnant for the far side of the crisis"). Too
many interdependencies, too much old code, not enough time or money to make
the changes, and probably not even enough knowledge about how to go about
it.

All it will take are a few systems failing. Checks arriving late, systems
crashing, a slowdown in an already slow system. (And of course the common
workarounds, such as keeping the computer clock set at 1998 or 1999, will
not work, as many benefits and IRS programs have dependencies on the clock
year, on the ages of taxpayers, on previous year's payments, and on and on.)

The loss of confidence in a highly-automated--but nevertheless
creaky--system will be glorious to watch.


>If any of the federal infrastructure protection specialists are listening
>in on cypherpunks (and we know you are), then maybe you ought to pay some
>real close attention to the things that are the most likely to bring about
>TEOCAWKI (the end of civilization as we know it).  Y2K is much more of a
>threat that the four horseman of the infocalypse.
>

You need to see the _bright side_ of the problem! By undermining the
system,  the changes that are needed will come sooner.

And I think the theory that tax protestors have been sabotaging the system
for decades is probably on target. Obfuscating the code, destroying source
code, inserting logic bombs.


>Something tells me that if the IRS, the FED, Major Banks, US Army C&C,
>GPS Satellites and the Railroad shipments fail within months of each
>other we are not going to be browsing Barnes and Noble on the weekends.

Just remember three words:

Lock and load.


--Tim May

The Feds have shown their hand: they want a ban on domestic cryptography
---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:----
Timothy C. May              | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money,
ComSec 3DES:   408-728-0152 | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero
W.A.S.T.E.: Corralitos, CA  | knowledge, reputations, information markets,
Higher Power: 2^2,976,221   | black markets, collapse of governments.
"National borders aren't even speed bumps on the information superhighway."