From: dlv@bwalk.dm.com (Dr.Dimitri Vulis KOTM)
Date: Thu, 27 Nov 1997 14:04:05 +0800
To: cypherpunks@toad.com
Subject: Re: Further costs of war (fwd)
In-Reply-To: <199711240521.XAA10697@einstein.ssz.com>
Message-ID: <Vq7sge13w165w@bwalk.dm.com>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain



This has little crypto relevance (unless someone drags in the fact that
some of the important ww2 naval battles were won by the us because they
broke jap codes).

Jim Choate <ravage@ssz.com> writes:
> Japan beat the shit out of Russia in 1903. Had it not been for Richard
> Sorge's intelligence of the situation in 1938 around Chankufeng Hill at
> Vladivostok indicating the Japanese governments committment to keep the
> situation from becoming a declared war and Georgi Zukhov at Khalkin Gol in
> 1939 the Japs would have beaten them then as well. In both situations Stalin
> was up against the wall.

In 1904/5 (what's a couple of years between punks) the japs beat the shit out
of the tzar, not Stalin, because of the tzarist army's supreme incompetence,
and also because of severe internal unrest in Russia (general strikes and
uprisings everywhere).

Prior to that, the japs effectively beat Russia in 1875(?). You may recall
that prior to the meiji revolution, the japs considered hokkaido a foreign
territory; there were no japs living there, and any jap who ventured there
was supposed to be put to death. Hokkaido, Sakhalin, and the Kuril islands
were inhabited by the Ainus (most of whom were baptized by Russian Orthodox
missionaries in 18th century), and a few cossack settlers and missionaries
from alaska. After the meiji revolution, the japs invaded Hokkaido and
massacred the ainus and the cossacks. In 1875 they told the Russians that
they consider all of {Hokkaido, Kurils, Sakhalin} to be a part of Japan and
not a "foreign land forbidden to japs". In order to avoid a war, the Russians
bent over and let the japs have Hokkaido and some of the Kurils, but held on
to Sakhalin and the northern Kurils.

By the treaty of Portsmouth in 1905, Russia further ceded to Japan the rest
of the Kurils, half of Sakhalin (south of the 50th parallel), and most of
Russian extensive interests in China and Korea. (Russia had serious influence
in Korea prior to the war; the Japs outright annexed in in 1910). Although
Russia was pretty much beaten militarily, it probably could have negotiated
better peace terms if it didn't have to deal with the severe unrest, forcing
it to stop the hostilities ASAP.

In general, Russia's attempts at Pacific expansionism in 19th century
were all failures. They got kicked out of northern california (fort ross);
sold (leased?) Alaska (seward's folly) to the US for almost nothing; tried
and failed to grab Hawaii and a chunk of New Guinea; and ended up with
no territories there, when every European country grabbed some.

The japs occupied big chunks of Russian Far East during the revolution and
civil war (1918-24). My recollection is that they went as far West as Chita
and Lake Baikal; and it took the Soviets until 1924 to convince them to leave
Vladivostok.

As for 1938, I tend to believe that there was some truth to Stalin's
assertion that Marshal Blyukher &co were plotting to sedede from the USSR and
to form an independent "Far Eastern Republic" (like the political entity
that got merged into the RSFSR in 1924 after the Japs left) and to invite
the japs to protect their sovereignty. Stalin sent Mekhlis to the Far
East, who executed Blyukher and _most of the Red Army commanders (officers)
in the region.

At lake Khasan (near the short Soviet-Korean border) the Japs demanded
(July/August, 1938) that the Soviets turn over some strategic hills, which
would have made a future attack on Vladivostok easier.  Then the japs
just sent some troops to occupy the hills; it took the Soviets almost 2
weeks to re-take them, which can be explained both by their incompetence
and by Blyukher working for the japs. Jap casualties were 650 dead and
2500 woulnded.

Jap casualties were much higher at Khalkhin Gol. Strategically, the Japs were
trying to occupy a chunk of Mongolia that would allow them to cut off the
only railroad linking the Soviet far east with the rest of Siberia (which
passes right next to the Chinese border). The japs were bombarding the
disputed area of Mongolia in January-April 1939; invaded in May, and were
kicked out by the Soviet troops, led by Zhukov (note the correct spelling)
in late August. Their casualties were 55K, 25K of which were killed.

Another little-known fact: during this timeframe, Stalin rounded up all
the ethnic chinese and koreans from the Soviet far east and resettled
them in Kazakhstan (as he did to many other etyhnic groups a few years
later).

> In 1938 there are clear indications that instead of
> counter-attacking he might very well have sued for peace and in the process
> lost the port at Vladivostok. Had the Japanese re-inforced their army they
> could have beaten the Russian troops available. Considering the lack of
> roads and rail in that part of Russia it is unrealistic to expect
> reinforcements to have arrived from Russia in a meaningful time frame
> without recognizing the contribution Japans hesitancy in getting into a
> conflict with Russia and Richard Sorge's clandestine intelligence
> contributed. Had either one of those not been present then Russia would have
> been eaten in little gobbles from the east and west.

That's why the japs tried so hard to cut off the railroad link in 1939...
They recognized that they could have occupied Vladivostok in 1938 if
they had really tried; but eventually Russian reinforcements would
come and there would be hell to pay. Stalin demonstrated that unlike the
tzars he was willing to put up a fight over this relatively worthless
real estate.

> Had it not been for the oil, food, and weapons we shipped Britian he would
> have owned Europe in toto. It is clear from Hitlers earliest writings that
> he had full intention of taking Russia. Had Stalin not had Sorge's
> intelligence regarding the Japanese's intent not to attack Russia at that
> time he would not have been able to pull troops from that front. Had those
> troops not been pulled then both Moscow and Stalingrad *would* have fallen.
> If Moscow fell Stalin fell.

Technically speaking, Moscow did fall. :-) By Oct 16, 1941, everyone and
everything were evacuated from Moscow, down to Lenin's mummy, and the Germans
could have walked in if they wanted to. The Germans chose not to march in
because they feared mines and booby traps they encountered earlier in Kiev
(probably correct, too). While they waffled, Russian reinforcements arrived
from Siberia and drove them off.

> Mussolini may not have been fond of Hitler but he certainly admired and
> respected the man, or at least that is what Ciano's diaries indicate.
> Mussolini's explorations in Africa were a result of an attempt on his part
> to gain respect in Hitlers eyes.

Mussolini's bloody invasion of Ethiopia was mostly a revenge for the
previous invasion by Italy which ended in a humiliating defeat.

I'd venture to say that other Hitler allies (Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria)
viewed him as a lesser eveil and didn't like him at all.


---

Dr.Dimitri Vulis KOTM
Brighton Beach Boardwalk BBS, Forest Hills, N.Y.: +1-718-261-2013, 14.4Kbps