From: Tim May <tcmay@got.net>
Date: Wed, 4 Feb 1998 04:34:08 +0800
To: "Attila T. Hun" <cypherpunks@cyberpass.net>
Subject: Re: the best justice money can buy --Lessig suspended
In-Reply-To: <19980203.154218.attila@hun.org>
Message-ID: <v03102802b0fd25414459@[207.167.93.63]>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain




I very strongly disagree with Attila the Hun on his views about Microsoft.
But I won't argue the case here.

My comments below are just on some specific points. His general outlook I
am completely at odds with.

At 7:49 AM -0800 2/3/98, Attila T. Hun wrote:

>    at this point, I would say M$ has won the game. W98 will
>    be released with IE4 as the desktop, complete with push
>    channels and www.msn.com --at that point, Jackson --if

On this we agree. Microsoft cannot lose at this point. NT 5.0 and Windows
98 are presumably coming, and will be on 97% of all desktops.

The issue of Netscape's browser is mostly meaningless, anyway, from a
revenue standpoint. Navigator is now free for all users. Unless Big Brother
tells MS what it must sell its browser for--shades of the "Anti Dog-eat-Dog
Law" in "Atlas Shrugged"--it is likely to remain this way.

(The real issue is going to be Web servers. Whether Netscape can prosper in
the world that is coming is unclear.)


>    so... we will have multiple choice of OS: M$ on Intel,
>    M$ on SGI, M$ on Alpha --and SUN goes down the tubes as

I wouldn't be so sure about these choices, either! SGI is hedging their bet
on the MIPS processor family by porting to Intel processors and NT.  (I
predict SGI will drop the MIPS line for workstations and desktops, leaving
the MIPS chips for Nintendo 64 and other such controller-oriented uses.)

And Compaq has announced plans to acquire DEC, so the future of the Alpha
processor is even more in doubt than before. (News reports are that the
deal Intel made with DEC may be killed by this Compaq deal...and even if
both deals go through, Compaq is unlikely to deviate in a major way from
the Intel processor line.)

Even Sun has announced major plans to port Solaris to the Intel Merced
line. (They've long had ports...I mean a _serious_ port. Probably meaning a
move away from the SPARC line.)

So, we've got:

-- MS on Intel-based systems from all major PC makers

-- MS on Intel-based systems from DEC

-- MS on Intel-based systems from SGI

-- MS on Intel-based systems from H-P

-- Solaris and H-PUX (or whatever H-P's UNIX is called) on Intel Merced

And so on.

(I've left out the PowerPC, as it appears now to be limited solely to the
Macintosh market...even IBM and Motorola appear to have acknowledged its
failure.)

Looks to me like Intel is the real winner here.

(And even Intel's competitors in the "Intel compatible" market are
struggling, unable to make the chips. I've written about this several
times. Just yesterday National Semiconductor admitted that its Cyrix chip
unit was losing sales, falling further behind, having huge losses, and not
producing needed new chips. Meanwhile, PC makers who foolishly committed
designs to the AMD design are unable to deliver....CyberMax committed to
the K6 line and is now unable to ship its only product, as the limited
number of chips AMD can make are trickled out to other companies.)

As for Attila's calls to break up MS...could make Bill Gates immensely
wealthier, as he'd then have a piece of the 5 most successful software
companies!

(I assume Attila is not arguing for simply seizing his property and giving
it to others, or running it as a government company, or just padlocking the
doors....)

--Tim May




"National borders aren't even speed bumps on the information superhighway."
---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:---------:----
Timothy C. May              | Crypto Anarchy: encryption, digital money,
ComSec 3DES:   408-728-0152 | anonymous networks, digital pseudonyms, zero
W.A.S.T.E.: Corralitos, CA  | knowledge, reputations, information markets,
Higher Power: 2^3,021,377   | black markets, collapse of governments.