From: Jim Choate <ravage@ssz.com>
Date: Thu, 19 Feb 1998 06:50:26 +0800
To: cypherpunks@ssz.com (Cypherpunks Distributed Remailer)
Subject: Moore's Law - What is it?
Message-ID: <199802182255.QAA13050@einstein.ssz.com>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text



Hi,

Consider this,

Moore's Law has for the past few decades successfuly described the increase
in computer performance, at least within experimental error. It has proven
it's success, at least short term, from the school of hard knocks.

But what *is* Moore's Law? It clearly doesn't discuss the fundamental
technology of computing and its limitations. Is it in fact the mathematical
description of our understanding and ability to apply that comprehension to
the real world. Is it in fact a mathematical model of the limits of human
reasoning and not computing technology per se.

If Moore's Law is fundamentaly valid over the long-term it should be
applicable to other forms of human endeavor since the limits of human
reasoning and comprehension would seem to be a characteristic of our mind
and not a particular area of application.

What other forms of human exploration when examined in this light follow the
curve?

Perhaps Moore's Law is a measure of an ecomomic systems' ability to apply
and distribute technology to the society in a non-breakthrough, an ah-hah
experience where there is a fundamental shift of paradigm, environment.

If so, what other forms of economic expansion follow this curve?

However, if Moore's Law is only applicable to computing technology; Why?
Why should such a simple curve describe such a complex and inherently
non-deterministic area?


    ____________________________________________________________________
   |                                                                    |
   |            When a man assumes a public trust, he should            |
   |            consider himself public property.                       |
   |                                                                    |
   |                                      Thomas Jefferson              |
   |                                                                    |
   |                                                                    | 
   |            _____                             The Armadillo Group   |
   |         ,::////;::-.                           Austin, Tx. USA     |
   |        /:'///// ``::>/|/                     http://www.ssz.com/   |
   |      .',  ||||    `/( e\                                           |
   |  -====~~mm-'`-```-mm --'-                         Jim Choate       |
   |                                                 ravage@ssz.com     |
   |                                                  512-451-7087      |
   |____________________________________________________________________|