From: Robert Hettinga <rah@shipwright.com>
Date: Fri, 18 Sep 1998 16:38:22 +0800
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Subject: Doomsdays
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Subject: Doomsdays
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Jan. 1, 2000 Isn't Only 'Doomsdate'
http://webserv1.startribune.com/cgi-bin/stOnLine/article?thisSlug=Y2K13

Published Sunday, September 13, 1998

Jan. 1, 2000, isn't only 'doomsdate'

Steve Woodward / Newhouse News Service

Jan. 1, 2000, is The Big One, kids.

By now, you've heard that many of the world's computers will roll the
date clock forward from "99" to "00" with potentially disastrous
consequences. Year 2000 authorities prophesy problems as minor as
erroneous overdue notices from the library and as major as a failure of
the nation's power grid.

But that isn't the only computer "doomsdate" looming. A slew of
lesser-known dates also could wreak technological havoc.

So brace yourself. The first date to dread -- Jan. 1, 1999 -- is fast
approaching.


Jan. 1, 1999: The one-year-look-ahead problem

Not every computer counts forward like you and me. Some look down the
road one entire year and count backward to determine the date. (Please
don't ask why.) On Jan. 1, 1999, some will look forward one year and see
"00." Like humans, the computers may balk at having to count backward
from 00.

Jan. 1, 1999, to Dec. 31, 2002: The euro currency problem

We all know that the year 2000 problem is the biggest software project
in history. But many Americans are unaware that programmers throughout
the world are also at work on the second biggest software project in
history: converting the currencies of 11 European nations into a single
currency called the euro.

Banks and financial institutions will begin transacting business in
euros on Jan. 1, 1999, although the actual bank notes won't be issued
until Jan. 1, 2001. The introduction of the euro is to continue through
the year 2002.

There's no direct link between the euro project and the Y2K project, but
the massive size of the simultaneous projects will soon take most of the
world's available programmers.


Aug. 21, 1999: The GPS rollover problem

The world's 24 global positioning satellites record time by counting the
weeks that have passed since their launch in 1980. The weeks fill up a
counter much like the odometer on your car. But like your odometer, the
counter rolls over to 0000 when it's full. At midnight on Aug. 21, 1999,
the counter will be full. Equipment that uses the GPS signals may
malfunction.


Sept. 9, 1999: The 9999 end-of-file problem

Many computers have been programmed to recognize 9999 as an
"end-of-file" command. Perhaps some computers will conclude, quite
logically, that a date of 9/9/99 means it's the end of all time.


Oct. 1, 1999: The federal fiscal year 2000 problem

Big Daddy rolls its clock forward Oct. 1, 1999. As of that date, the
federal government officially enters its 2000 budget year. Every federal
function will be affected, from defense to Medicare to payments on the
federal debt.


Jan. 4, 2000: The first-working-day-of-the-year problem

Year 2000 begins on a Saturday. Corporate America will switch on most of
its desktop computers Tuesday, Jan. 4, after a long holiday weekend.
Boot up and hang on to your morning mochas.


Feb. 29, 2000: The Year 2000 leap year problem, Part I

Most programmers know the rules for calculating leap years: Any year
evenly divisible by four is a leap year, except years that also are
divisible by 100. So 1996 is a leap year, but 2000 isn't -- er, right?
Well, there's a third, lesser-known rule that cancels the first two: Any
year divisible by 400 is a leap year, including -- you guessed it --
2000. The question is: How many programmers know that rule?


Dec. 31, 2000: The Year 2000 leap year problem, Part II

Some computers work by counting the number of days in the year. If they
aren't programmed to know that 2000 is a leap year, the machines will be
bewildered when they reach Dec. 31, 2000, the seemingly impossible 366th
day of the year.


Sept. 8, 2001: The Unix end-of-file problem

Unix is the "other" major operating system, a set of instructions that,
like Windows, DOS and MacOS, run the basic functions of a computer. Unix
powers many commercial and Internet computers. Unix tells time
differently, which means that it does not have a year 2000 problem.
Unfortunately, it does have a Sept. 8, 2001, problem. In Unix language,
that date is represented by the number 999,999,999 -- the same number
that some Unix applications use to denote the end of a file.


Circa 2025: The U.S. telephone number problem

By the year 2025 or so, the United States will simply run out of
available seven-digit telephone numbers and area codes. Telephone
companies will have to add digits or revamp the numbering system. That,
in turn, will force software programmers to overhaul every piece of
software that uses phone numbers, plus all databases and archives that
store phone numbers.


Jan. 19, 2038: The other Unix problem

The Unix operating system tells time by counting the number of seconds
elapsed since Jan. 1, 1970. But like your odometer, there are only so
many places on its counter. At seven seconds past 3:14 a.m. on Jan. 19,
2038, the counters on every Unix computer in the world will be full and
will roll over to "0." Many computers will assume it's either Jan. 1,
1970, all over again (who wants to relive the '70s?) or that it's the
end of the world (which may be a better alternative than the preceding).


Circa 2050 to 2075: The Social Security number problem

By 2075, the United States will have exhausted the 1 billion unique
Social Security numbers possible under its nine-digit numbering system.
Year 2000 expert Capers Jones suggests that the nation must be prepared
by 2050 to expand or replace the many software applications that depend
on those numbers.

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-----------------
Robert A. Hettinga <mailto: rah@philodox.com>
Philodox Financial Technology Evangelism <http://www.philodox.com/>
44 Farquhar Street, Boston, MA 02131 USA
"... however it may deserve respect for its usefulness and antiquity,
[predicting the end of the world] has not been found agreeable to
experience." -- Edward Gibbon, 'Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire'