From: "Vladimir Z. Nuri" <vznuri@netcom.com>
Date: Wed, 2 Dec 1998 05:01:32 +0800
To: cypherpunks@cyberpass.net
Subject: y2k+oil refineries
Message-ID: <199812012012.MAA03042@netcom13.netcom.com>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain



a disturbing post on the idea that maybe embedded systems
in refineries are so "embedded" they can't even be reached/
isolated. also hugely ubiquitous....

------- Forwarded Message


> 
> Gary North's Y2K Links and Forums
> 
>  1998-11-30 13:28:22
> Subject:
>  Fuel Production Plants
> Comment:
>  Let's hope this informant is wrong. If you have counter-evidence, contact me
> at P. O. Box 8000, Tyler, TX 75711.
> 
> * * * * * * * *
> 
> I have one very, very reliable source within that industry who tells me that
> the oil refining industry can't cope with the task. I am told that the problem
> of embedded systems can NOT be fixed EVER, no matter how much time were
> allowed. WHY? Because the refineries themselves would have to be dismantled to
> uncover these embedded systems. Essentially, the refineries would have to be
> destroyed and rebuilt!!! These embedded systems are buried within enclosed
> systems. Identifying, testing and replacing these systems is too impractical.
> It is financially unsound to do so. The better option is to build new ones.
> There is no time to do this with less than 400 days left and the time to build
> a new refinery is 3 to 5 years.
> 
> So, what does this mean? My sources, especially the most reliable source tell
> me that it means that on January 1, 2000... the oil and gas refineries will
> cease operations. These facilities also have converted their inventory
> management control systems to small inventory levels so that inventory levels
> are running about 1 to 2 days capacity. A few years ago, the industry averaged
> a 1 to 6 month supply in storage tanks. Not so today.
> 
> The results: By 1/5/2000 there will be no gasoline, no diesel fuel, no natural
> gas, no heating oil, no fuel oil products at all. This means trains will have
> no fuel. Trucks will have no fuel. Cars will have no fuel. Electric Power
> Plants will have no oil for fuel, nor coal... because there will be no fuel to
> power the vehicles to get it to them. So, there will be no electricity. And
> you know the remaining domino schematic from that point.