From: hallam@Etna.ai.mit.edu
Date: Fri, 7 Jun 1996 11:43:55 +0800
To: grafolog@netcom.com>
Subject: Re: whitehouse web incident, viva la web revolution
In-Reply-To: <Pine.3.89.9606061558.A14010-0100000@netcom9>
Message-ID: <9606061643.AA03971@Etna.ai.mit.edu>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain



>	Call it what you will, the odds of 25 consecutive contracts
>	all showing a profit are miniscle, except under one set of
>	circumstances.  <<  It is something like 1 chance in
>	15 511 210 000 000 000 000 000 000.  >>

Rubbish, 2^25 is 33,554,432. How do you calculate your figures? Or do you just 
make 'em up as you go along?

These are contracts which are expected to pay off more times that they are not, 
they are made on the advice of someone who is an expert in the area. The 
contracts are probably hedging each other in such a way that one contract or the 
other is likely to pay off.

If you hit a favourable market for your strategy you can win big. Problem is 
that after a while others are likley to cotton on to your strategy. 

>	Futures trading on contracts generally show a profit?
>	I guess you are talking about the person who sets up 
>	the trades, and takes a commission on the trades, 
>	regardless of who makes, or ( usually ) loses money. 

Yes, selling rather than buying. If you buy a contract to sell gold at price X 
the chances are that you will lose money most of the time. Many of the 
industries buying those contracts are doing so to protect their exposure to 
price fluctuations in raw materials. Selling contracts is in effect 
underwritting risk of market fluctuations, most times you expect to realise a 
profit, but if you lose you can loose very big indeed.

BTW, I'm told that margin requirements for that market are 5%. So to sell 
$20,000 of contracts you only need to put down $1000. 

		Phill