From: jim bell <jimbell@pacifier.com>
Date: Thu, 8 Aug 1996 16:37:15 +0800
To: Julian Assange <sandfort@crl.com (Sandy Sandfort)
Subject: Re: STEGO GUNS
Message-ID: <199608080544.WAA20087@mail.pacifier.com>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain


At 07:28 AM 8/8/96 +1000, Julian Assange wrote:

>> 
>> 	The nationwide study [from the University of
>> 	Chicago] found that violent crime fell after
>> 	states made it legal to carry concealed handguns:
>> 	*   Homicide, down 8.5%.
>> 	*   Rape, down 5%.
>> 	*   Aggravated assault, down 7%.
>> 	...
>> 	The drop isn't primarily caused by people 
>> 	defending themselves with guns, says John Lott,
>> 	the study's author.  Rather, criminals seem to 
>> 	alter their behavior to avoid coming into contact
>> 	with a person who might have a gun.

>Correlation != causation. What are the figures on other crimes? I
>presume they would have to have gone up, since the criminal element has
>been deprived of it's "revenue" in this manner. Perhaps they simply
>didn't have time for killing, raping and assulting; being too busy
>lugging around their legally concealed handguns and pointing them at
>shop-keepers.

I think this is relevant, albeit in an indirect way, to cypherpunks.  We're 
all familiar with some of the various ways that government tries to justify 
intrusion based on arguments which look superficially plausible.  The 
nationwide 55 mph speed limit is one, which was first supported based on the 
claim that it saved gas, but later the justification changed to saving 
lives.  Yet recently studies have shown an actual decrease in accidents in 
states which raised the speed limit.  

The other big correlation (which turns out to be an anti-correlation!) is 
the idea that allowing people to carry concealed handguns leads to greater 
numbers of deaths.  By this study, that claim is shown to be false as well.

The reason this is all relevant is that cryptography is currently under 
attack by the US government, under the guise of ITAR, with the implicit 
claim that the availability of good crypto will somehow help "terrorists, 
drug dealers, child pornographers, and Jim Bell"  (oops!  sorry about that 
one...)

We, on the other hand, recognize that the advent of good cryptography will 
protect us far more than it might arguably harm us.  All of us on CP 
(except, probably, Sternlight) would gladly accept a world where 
unrestricted crypto is ubiquitous.

By showing previous examples of how government makes false claims and 
misuses (or ignores) statistics to support its actions, we can challenge any 
presumptions it makes regarding crypto.


Jim Bell
jimbell@pacifier.com