From: Jim Gillogly <jim@ACM.ORG>
Date: Thu, 29 Aug 1996 13:38:44 +0800
To: cypherpunks@toad.com
Subject: Re: A _REALLY_ Interesting Bet
In-Reply-To: <Pine.SUN.3.94.960828175406.25479A-100000@polaris>
Message-ID: <199608290229.TAA10523@mycroft.rand.org>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain



Black Unicorn <unicorn@schloss.li> writes:
>Are these issues not listed currently on the IDEA FUTURES exchange?

>Anyone have the URL?

Idea Futures is dead, and the torch has passed to Foresight Exchange (FX),
which is at http://www.ideosphere.com/ideosphere/ .  You can bet on a number
of political issues (US and other), though not (yet) for real money.

Bill Clinton re-elected last sold at 89 (out of 100), and
Dole beats Clinton      last sold at 15.

This doesn't track the polls, which typically ask who the potential voter
would vote for rather than who they think will win the election.
Other issues:

Percentage of popular vote to Dem candidate: 47
"               "             Rep    "     : 44
"               "             Other  "     : 12

Note that there may be an opportunity for arbitrage when numbers don't add
up to 100; but I'm simplifying, since there are separate buy and sell bids.

Third party candidate gets the most votes  :  4
Clinton landslide                            20
Dole landslide                                4
Democrats retake the House in 96             45
Democrats retake the Senate in 96            30
Percent electoral votes to Democrats         70
President without popular majority           55
Clinton resigns or impeached by end of 96     1

And so on...

	Jim Gillogly
	Hevensday, 7 Halimath S.R. 1996, 02:29