From: Declan McCullagh <declan@well.com>
Date: Mon, 15 Sep 1997 03:55:20 +0800
To: Will Rodger <rodger@worldnet.att.net>
Subject: Re: unSAFE won't pass?
In-Reply-To: <3.0.3.32.19970914113657.006daba8@postoffice.worldnet.att.net>
Message-ID: <Pine.GSO.3.95.970914122951.18715F-100000@well.com>
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On Sun, 14 Sep 1997, Will Rodger wrote:

> It may make for good copy, but I think it's just fantasy to think the 
> administration or their opponents, for that matter, will get what 
> they want this year. Let them swarm. Who cares.
> 
> At earliest, August of 1998 before anything passes - and even that is 
> highly optimistic.

I agree with Will that we'll likely see shouting on the floor, but I'm
not as convinced on the timing.

Sure, it's incredibly unlikely that anything will pass both chambers this
year. But will it take 11 months? The sequence of events could look
something like this: 

By late September, the Commerce committee will vote on SAFE. By
mid-October, the committee chairs should have worked out a compromise
package. This goes to the Rules committee, chaired by Solomon. Until last
week he vowed to block SAFE. Now he'd like, I'm told, to get the FBI's
version to the floor immediately. There are, however, only so many slots
on the suspension calendar.

It's conceivable the House could vote on the bill this year, especially if
they leave town later than anticipated and only if the version is the
FBI's. (I think it's inconceivable that Goodlatte's version of SAFE could
get to the floor anytime soon.) Whether this happens or not will depend on
the Rules committee, the leadership -- and, most of all, behind-the-scenes
maneuvering.

The Senate, however, appears to be taking much, much longer. But I think
that the national security/l.e. forces can move long before the end of
next summer. 

-Declan