From: "Vladimir Z. Nuri" <vznuri@netcom.com>
Date: Sun, 29 Nov 1998 11:28:51 +0800
To: cypherpunks@cyberpass.net
Subject: y2k/gary north delusions
Message-ID: <199811290304.TAA06582@netcom13.netcom.com>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain



I've been reading gary north for quite awhile and think
he is quite brilliant on some issues. for example he was
quoting statistics about amt of time it takes to fix code,
cost per line, govt agencies etc. a long, long time ago.
he really zeroed in on the govt bureacrat "ostrichism"
early on.. 

anyway I hate to say that I think he is really losing his
mind lately.. no there are going to be some serious y2k problems,
but imho the bottom approaches "garbage".. any talk of riots,
mobs, martial law, stockpiling weaponry, roving bandits
etc. seems to me to be really way off base to say the least.
now people have been talking about this, but I've never seen
gary north go quite that crazy.

all the quoting of obscure, fictitious b-grade movies in this article
makes me think he is really living in a fantasy world. now
this is a shame because some of his research is some of the
most solid and ahead-of-time than anyone on the entire net,
by far. his site is a work of art in tedious archival,
compilation, indexing.

gary, take it easy. take a vacation. take a deep breath.

well posted for your own opinion

------- Forwarded Message


Gary North's REALITY CHECK
Issue #33
November 17, 1998


       CLOCKS TICK, BUT MOST PEOPLE IGNORE THE SOUND


     Tonight we will go through the Leonid meteor shower. 
Scientists tell us that this one will not match the 1966
shower, nor will it match the one a year and a day from
now.  But we will probably lose a few major satellites. 
Any company that has insured satellites has just entered a
higher-risk period.

     Astronomy is a precise science.  It can predict events
such as this one with remarkable accuracy.  The astronomers
do not know how intense this shower will be, but they know
for certain that tonight will be the highest density night. 
Some think it will be a bump in the highway, but others
think it could be worse for our satellites.  This reminds
me of y2k forecasts.

     I shall go out tonight to see the shooting stars.  I
was on top of a hill in a desert area in 1966, lying on the
trunk of a car, looking up.  I did not know about the
Leonids.  I just happened to be in the right place to see
them.  The shooting stars came every few minutes.  Never in
history had there been so many -- and records of the
Leonids go back to the tenth century.  I'll never forget
it.  I'll never forget y2k, either.


                   IGNORING THE OBVIOUS

     There are millions of people who know that y2k is
coming.  They will put this out of their minds until the
last minute.  They will pay no attention until events force
themselves on men's perception.  Then they will say, "Why
didn't anyone tell me?"  There are several answers: (1) the
watchmen did not believe the evidence; (2) risks to the
reputations of watchmen are high and rewards are few; (3)
almost no one would have listened anyway.

     Let me give another example.  I have mentioned in
"Remnant Review," but not on my Web site, since it is not a
y2k issue.  But it is surely an ignored deadline issue. 
Brady II goes into effect in just a few days: December 1. 
>From that day forward, U.S. residents will not be able to
buy a shotgun or a rifle without registering and paying a
fee.  Their names will be placed in an FBI computer, even
though this is illegal and the authorities know it's
illegal.  Where is the ACLU?  If this law applied only to
Blacks, the ACLU would be fighting it.  But since it
applies to everyone, we hear nothing.  

     There is a scene in "The Trigger Effect" where the two
male characters go into a gun store a few days after the
power has been off.  So do a lot of others.  They are told
that they cannot buy handguns.  There is a waiting period. 
But they can buy rifles and shotguns.  They buy a shotgun
with what little cash they can scrape together.

     As of December 1, this scene will be inaccurate. 
There will be an extra fee and the loss of privacy.

     The next step: a prohibition on private gun sales.  To
sell your gun to your next door neighbor, you will have to
take your gun to a gun dealer, who will register the
transaction and impose the 5-day waiting period.  The
President has said that it is his goal to shut down gun
shows.  I think he will be successful.

     Now, I'm not too worried about being in any computer. 
They will all be dead on 1/1/2000.  But what is obvious is
that those who dilly-dally now will find themselves
competing with people who have cash in 2000.  The collapse
of the banks over the next 16 months will transfer wealth
to the drug dealers on a massive scale.  They will have
cash, and they will be dealing in consumer goods that will
function as money.  Drugs are divisible, recognizable to
users, have a very high value-to-volume ratio, and are
durable.

     There is no doubt in my mind that in those
geographical areas where addiction is high, the drug lords
will take over the functions of government.  They will be
armed.  They will have money.  They are ruthless.  And the
police will be absent.  The inner cities of the United
States will become warlord societies within two years.

     Do not live anywhere near one of these areas.  The
criminals and addicts will fan out to extract wealth from
contiguous areas.  The police will be hard-pressed to
respond.  It will take time for martial law to be imposed,
and in most places, there will not be any military
presence.  Neighborhood defense will be based increasingly
on what local residents can muster.  If the locals are
disarmed, then they will be sitting ducks.  

     Neighborhoods will set up roadblocks with cars.  The
two-car family will become a one-car family.  The number-
one defensive measure a neighborhood can take is a
roadblock.  Criminals will have to get into a neighborhood
on foot.  They will have to get out the same way.

     Easy transportation will disappear in 2000.  Urban
life will move to a crawl.  On that day, you had better
have your water, your food, your non-hybrid seeds, and your
ammunition.

     Nobody else talks like this.  The watchmen are in the
"peace, peace" mode.  That's easy talk in the days before
the shooting starts.  The function of the watchman in the
Old Testament was military.  He warned of an invading army. 
That's what I'm doing.  The army has already invaded the
central cities.  It is well armed, well organized, and
ruthless.  It will move outward in 2000.

     Rent "The Friendly Persuasion."  It's a great movie. 
Pay close attention to the pacifism of the Quaker men in
the weeks before the Confederates invaded and the
militarism on the day before.  Talk of peace is cheap
before the shooting starts.

     What I am saying is obvious, but it is not politically
correct.  Today's watchmen are afraid of politically
liberal media reporters who might say, "These people
recommend buying guns!  Oh, woe!  Oh, horrors!"  I pay no
attention.  When I think of any reporter, I think: "Dead
man typing."  He will have no job, no career, no pension,
and no readers in 15 months.  He will be at the mercy of
those around him.  

     The mentality of the typical reporter is that of the
wife on "the Trigger Effect."  A liberal to the core, she
wanted no part of a shotgun.  The movie centers around her
ideology and the costs that it imposed.  It was not a good
movie, but it surely did portray her in a bad light, which
was well deserved.

     The clock is ticking.  Brady II is coming.  And
millions of people will walk into a Wal-Mart SuperCenter
next month and through all of next year and wonder: "Why
didn't someone tell me I would have to register this
transaction?"  (See the three reasons, above.)


                     ACROSS THE BOARD

     The shock of recognition that rifle-buyers will have
in the next few months will be paralleled in 1999 on an
international scale.  "What do you mean, I can't get cash
out of this bank?"  "What do you mean, you're out of solar
panels?"  (http://www.solarextreme.com)  "What do you mean,
I can't buy an inverter?"  "What do you mean, I can't get
delivery of a diesel generator?"  "What do you mean, you
don't have any deep cycle golf cart batteries?"  "What do
you mean I can't get delivery of a wood burning stove?"

     In 2000, it will be food, water, and electricity.  But
there will be no seller to complain to.  To complain, you
have to be able to speak to someone.  You won't be able to.

     Let's start with the basics: water.  An urban adult
uses 75 to 100 gallons of water a day.  This doesn't count
watering the lawn.  In 2000, how many people will be under
your roof?  Remember, your children may show up on your
doorstep, with wives and children.  Families will pull
together for survival in 2000.  Estimate the number of
people under your roof in 2000.  Now, how much water will
you need per day?

     What if the municipal water authority shuts down? 
It's goodbye showers.  Goodbye flushing toilets.  Hello sponge
baths and thunder mugs.  I don't think the reality of the
power cut-off will hit most families until someone says,
"Mom, the toilet won't flush."  Then the realization will
dawn at last.  A new, unpleasant world has arrived.

     Disease will begin to spread by the end of the week.

     Every time you take a shower, think of 2000.  Every
time you flush a toilet, think of 2000.  Ask yourself: How
will I do this in 2000?

     People will not do this.  No, not even those who have
read my warnings for two years.  They will not go through
the mental exercise of planning ahead for the basics -- and
water is near the top of any list of basics, right below
heat in the winter.

     There are millions of people who live in high-rise
apartments today.  There will be fewer in February, 2000.

     Let's assume that for the first three months in 2000,
you will not get paid.  The banks will be down.  You will
not be able to write a check or use a credit card.  What
will you do?

     What will your neighbors do?

     What if it's a year?

     If it's a year, it could be a decade.

     What will you do?  What is your exit strategy?

     Have you and your spouse sat down with pencil and
paper and written down your family's exit strategy?  No? 
Why not?  It's not that I haven't nagged you.

     What of your adult children?  Which ones will be able
to make it through three months of no paychecks?  Of those
that can't, how many will wind up on your doorstep in late
1999?  Or will you wind up on theirs?

     Should you head for the hills?  Wrong question.  What
solid evidence do you have that you shouldn't?

     Should you stay where you are?  What items will you
need in your possession in 2000 and 2001 to make your
decision to stay put a wise one for you and all of your
closest relatives, who will show up on your doorstep if
they know that you have prepared?  That is to say, have you
prepared for every close family member who will be in
trouble in 2000?  No?  Why not?

     The clock is ticking.

     Let me give a simple example.  How will you wash
clothes for everyone?  Let's assume that you have water. 
(Dreamer!)  You can buy a 40-lb. tub of Wind Fresh laundry
detergent from Sam's Club for $10.  It will do 160 loads. 
For one person, that's a year of washing.  What if you have
10 people under your roof?  You will need 10 tubs for just
one year.  But this product may not be readily available in
2001.  You had better buy 20 tubs.  I'll bet you don't have
20 tubs, even though you can afford $200.  You lack the
storage space.  More important, 20 tubs of detergent point
to all the other things you will need under conditions that
would mandate 20 tubs of detergent.  So, people refuse to
buy enough detergent.

     Now, what about your neighbors?  They will be dirty. 
Their clothes will be dirty.  You will be clean.  You will
not have lost 30 pounds.  You will be the target of envy on
a scale you can barely imagine today.  You will be
despised.  Will you be ready for this psychologically?

     Of course, you can warn your neighbors now.  They will
not prepare, but they will remember.

     There will be a stream of beggars at your door from
2000 onward.  You may know their names.  "Please, please,
we're desperate."  It won't be a lie.

     When a society loses the division of labor, it loses
just about everything that the urban "good life" requires. 
If you keep even a fraction of these things -- clean
clothes, for instance -- you will be resented.  Envy is a
powerful force.  "He doesn't deserve it.  It's not right
that he should have so much.  No one should have so much."

     Here is a piece of information you may not have. 
Sam's Club offers a special service.  It has a 50-page
notebook with all of its products listed, with order
numbers.  Go to the manager and ask for a copy.  Take it
home.  Make a shopping list.  You can order everything at
one time.  Rent a U-Haul or borrow a pick-up truck and pick
up everything.

     The average adult consumes 1000 lbs of food for a year. 
Half should be vegetables.  You can grow them.  Buy
non-hybrid seeds.  (http://arkinstitute.com)  Half 
can be grains.  You can buy 200 lbs of white rice at Sam's
Club for under $60.  The same for pinto beans.

     In terms of food, $300 will feed you for a year. 
You'll hate the taste by mid-2000, but you'll eat.  How
many of you will spend a whole $300 on food?  Not many. 
Why not?  Because if they might need this much food,
they'll need water, and they know they can't get enough
water in 2000.  They would have to move, or put in four
1,500-gallon cisterns and gutters, or buy a swimming pool. 
They won't do it.

     My suggestion: rent "The Trigger Effect."  Then make
up your mind about where you should live in 2000.

     For those who want a public presentation, which can be
used to persuade people who have not read much about y2k,
my Harrison, Arkansas y2k town meeting tape is effective. 
You can see representatives of the public utilities and a
local bank deal with y2k.  The question and answer session
is especially useful.  It sells for $39.95: 
call 903-839-8822.

- - --------------------------------------------
Reality Check
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