From: Petro <petro@playboy.com>
Date: Sat, 5 Dec 1998 03:15:09 +0800
To: cypherpunks@cyberpass.net
Subject: Re: y2k/gary north delusions
In-Reply-To: <199811290304.TAA06582@netcom13.netcom.com>
Message-ID: <v04011706b2889eb2b6a8@[206.189.103.230]>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: text/plain



Looks like this one didn't make it out the first time around.
It's a little late. Sorry.

At 10:04 PM -0500 11/28/98, Vladimir Z. Nuri wrote:
>anyway I hate to say that I think he is really losing his
>mind lately.. no there are going to be some serious y2k problems,
>but imho the bottom approaches "garbage".. any talk of riots,
>mobs, martial law, stockpiling weaponry, roving bandits
>etc. seems to me to be really way off base to say the least.
>now people have been talking about this, but I've never seen
>gary north go quite that crazy.

	Not just crazy, flat out _wrong_ in at least one case:

>     Let's start with the basics: water.  An urban adult
>uses 75 to 100 gallons of water a day.  This doesn't count

	Like hell. Your average adult drinks at MOST 1 gallon a day,
including coffees sodas etc. It is _real_ difficult to drink over 1 gallon,
and you can seriously fuck your system up (mineral balances) if you drink
too much.

	I drink a LOT of (non-alcohol) fluid (as opposed to drinking
solids) a day, and I usually top out at 3 quarts, unless I am doing a long
distance ride.

	Let's round it up and call it one gallon for drinking.

	Showers: If you need more than 10-15 gallons, you are taking too long.

	Cooking: another gallon.

	Washing hands & dental hygene: 0ne more.

	Flushing toilets: 2-5 gallons per flush. Drinking one gallon of
water a day gets you flushing a _lot_, about 10 flushes a day (we are going
outer limits
on this one) that is 20 to 50 gallons a day.

	Washing dishes shouldn't take more than 3 for pots & pans, and one
for each persons utensils.

	Total: 40-75 (rounded up).

	That's for comfort. It also doesn't include watering the lawn or
washing the car.

>watering the lawn.  In 2000, how many people will be under
>your roof?  Remember, your children may show up on your
>doorstep, with wives and children.  Families will pull
>together for survival in 2000.  Estimate the number of
>people under your roof in 2000.  Now, how much water will
>you need per day?

	Ok, so let's cut that back to what we _need_. First off, we don't
dump our dish water down the drain, it gets "recycled" to flush the
toilets.

	So does the shower water.

	Then we only flush when we need to (i.e. not for every urination as
when drinking 3/4 a gallon a day (we are cutting back a little)  it's
mostly straight water anyway). So that eliminates almost all of the 20-50
gallons.

	Then we only shower when necessary, rather than every day, we
should be able to go 2-3 days between showers. No, it's not as pleasent,
but at least it's not unsanitary. So we'll say every other day droping our
daily consumption down to 5-7.5

	We won't touch cooking, and we'll increase the washing hands/other
hygene to 2 gallons to help make up for the lack of showers (actually,
doing this you could strecth to 3 days easily).

	So:
	drinking: 3/4 gallon (note that not all of this has to be "water",
fruit juice, sodas (at least until supplies run out) etc.)
	Showers: 5-7.5
	Cooking: 1 gallon
	Washing hands &etc. 2 gallons.
	Flushing Toilets: Allocate 10 just in case.
	Washing dishs: 4 (we aren't skimping here for hygene reasons).

	Total: 22-25.

	One half to one quarter Mr. Norths claims, and I'd bet my numbers
are still on the high side. This is also a fairly comfortable level
compared to pure survival.

>     What if the municipal water authority shuts down?
>It's goodbye showers.  Goodbye flushing toilets.  Hello sponge

	Only if you're a fucking idiot. You don't need potable water to
shower with, and you sure as hell don't need it to flush a toilet.

>     Let's assume that for the first three months in 2000,
>you will not get paid.  The banks will be down.  You will
>not be able to write a check or use a credit card.  What
>will you do?

	Live off those who planned ahead, stocked up spent thousands of
dollars on Food, Generators, guns & etc. but didn't spend 10 minutes making
sure their bodies were prepared & died of heart attacks trying to pull
start their generators to keep their computers running.

	(I'm mostly joking about the above)

>     What will your neighbors do?

	Run for the suburbs.

>     If it's a year, it could be a decade.

	If it's a decade, we're all fucked.

>     What will you do?  What is your exit strategy?

	Sit tight with several months of food (we have a largish lake
nearby, Lake Michigan, maybe you've heard of it) & asst. supplies and see
how things go. There are way too many variables to actually _plan_ an "exit
strategy", and no where to go.

>     Should you head for the hills?  Wrong question.  What
>solid evidence do you have that you shouldn't?

	Try this: NO WHERE TO GO. THERE ISN'T ENOUGH HILLS, AND EVERY ONE
IS HEADING THERE.

	YOU CAN'T RAISE (large amounts) OF FOOD IN THE HILLS W/OUT TRACTORS
AND SHIT, and you can't do it w/people shooting you to get your tractors,
food, and desiel.

>     Should you stay where you are?  What items will you

	Yes.

>need in your possession in 2000 and 2001 to make your

	Adequate food, warm clothing, & assorted stuff (including a couple
firearms for self protection.

>     Let me give a simple example.  How will you wash
>clothes for everyone?  Let's assume that you have water.
>(Dreamer!)  You can buy a 40-lb. tub of Wind Fresh laundry
>detergent from Sam's Club for $10.  It will do 160 loads.

	Ummm. Gary, how did people wash their clothes before they could buy
soap at the store?

	Why don't you print a recipe for Lye Soap?

	Because it's a lot easier being a blowhard.


>Their clothes will be dirty.  You will be clean.  You will
>not have lost 30 pounds.  You will be the target of envy on
>a scale you can barely imagine today.  You will be
>despised.  Will you be ready for this psychologically?

	Been despised all my life. I'm sure you know what that is like.

>local bank deal with y2k.  The question and answer session
>is especially useful.  It sells for $39.95:

	So over the next 12 months banks will fail, society will collapse,
and TWAWKIWE, and he is trying to get rich off it.

	Things that make you go Huh?
--
"To sum up: The entire structure of antitrust statutes in this country is a
jumble of economic irrationality and ignorance. It is a product: (a) of a
gross misinterpretation of history, and (b) of rather nave, and certainly
unrealistic, economic theories." Alan Greenspan, "Anti-trust"
http://www.ecosystems.net/mgering/antitrust.html

Petro::E-Commerce Adminstrator::Playboy Ent. Inc.::petro@playboy.com